We present a puzzle about knowledge, probability and conditionals. We show that in certain cases some basic and plausible principles governing our reasoning come into conflict. In particular, we show that there is a simple argument that a person may be in a position to know a conditional the consequent of which has a low probability conditional on its antecedent, contra Adams’ Thesis. We suggest that the puzzle motivates a very strong restriction on the inference of a conditional from a (...) disjunction. (shrink)

We argue that definite noun phrases give rise to uniqueness inferences characterized by a pattern we call definiteness projection. Definiteness projection says that the uniqueness inference of a definite projects out unless there is an indefinite antecedent in a position that filters presuppositions. We argue that definiteness projection poses a serious puzzle for e-type theories of (in)definites; on such theories, indefinites should filter existence presuppositions but not uniqueness presuppositions. We argue that definiteness projection also poses challenges for dynamic approaches, which (...) have trouble generating uniqueness inferences and predicting some filtering behavior, though unlike the challenge for e-type theories, these challenges have mostly been noted in the literature, albeit in a piecemeal way. Our central aim, however, is not to argue for or against a particular view, but rather to formulate and motivate a generalization about definiteness which any adequate theory must account for. (shrink)

We explore consequences of the view that to know a proposition your rational credence in the proposition must exceed a certain threshold. In other words, to know something you must have evidence that makes rational a high credence in it. We relate such a threshold view to Dorr et al.’s :277–287, 2014) argument against the principle they call fair coins: “If you know a coin won’t land tails, then you know it won’t be flipped.” They argue for rejecting fair coins (...) because it leads to a pervasive skepticism about knowledge of the future. We argue that the threshold view of evidence and knowledge gives independent grounds to reject fair coins. (shrink)

I argue that Republic presents thumos as a limited, or flawed, principle of psychic unity. My central claim is that Plato both makes this assertion about the necessary limitations of thumos, and can defend it, because he understands thumos as the pursuit of to oikeion, or one’s own. So understood, the thumoetic part divides the world into self and other and pursues the defense of the former from the latter. As a result, when confronted with a conflicting desire, the thumoetic (...) part makes sense of that desire as an irredeemable opponent. That, in turn, precludes the persuasion of desires that Plato sees as necessary for psychic harmony. (shrink)

We show that each of three natural sets of assumptions about the conditional entails necessitarianism: that anything possible is necessary.

We offer two arguments against the halving repose to Sleeping Beauty. First, we show that halving violates the Epistemological Sure-Thing Principle, which we argue is a necessary constraint on any reasonable probability assignment. The constraint is that if hypothetically on C you assign to A the same probability you assign to A hypothetical on not-C, you must assign that probability to A simpliciter. Epistemically, it's a sure thing for you that A has this probability. Second, we show that halving violates (...) solid statistical reasoning (or draws absurdly irrelevant distinctions). (shrink)

Two recent and influential papers, van Rooij 2007 and Lassiter 2012, propose solutions to the proviso problem that make central use of related notions of independence—qualitative in the first case, probabilistic in the second. We argue here that, if these solutions are to work, they must incorporate an implicit assumption about presupposition accommodation, namely that accommodation does not interfere with existing qualitative or probabilistic independencies. We show, however, that this assumption is implausible, as updating beliefs with conditional information does not (...) in general preserve independencies. We conclude that the approach taken by van Rooij and Lassiter does not succeed in resolving the proviso problem. (shrink)

A spectre haunts the semantics of natural language — the spectre of Triviality. Semanticists (in particular Rothschild 2013; Khoo and Mandelkern 2018a,b) have entered into a holy alliance to exorcise this spectre. None, I will argue, have yet succeeded.

In this essay I take up the later major anti-Semitic propaganda pieces, all of them released in 1940. They were produced under Goebbels explicit orders to each of the three Nazi-controlled studios to produce an anti-Semitic film. The three films produced were: The Rothschilds Share at Waterloo; Jud Suss; and The Eternal Jew. These films were much more powerful propaganda pieces in intensifying anti-Semitic feelings—those feelings of difference, disgust, and danger. For each film, I point to the scenes that arouse (...) the feelings even more profoundly than did the earlier films. The Rothschilds’ Shares at Waterloo put forward the conspiracy theory (widespread to this day) that Jewish bankers form a conspiratorial cabal bent upon world domination. Jew Suss (which was presented as historically true) pushes the narrative of Jews using money to take power, and of their boundless lust for young Christian women (hence the danger of “racial pollution”). Of all the anti-Semitic propaganda films the regime produced, the top regime figures considered this to be the most powerful—about 40% of German adults of the time saw this film. It is banned in Germany to this day. Finally, The Eternal Jew—perhaps the most infamous of the group—is presented as a truthful documentary. While this sham documentary was a comparative box office flop, it was widely used as a training film. (shrink)

Quality of Zionism`s formation Written by: A.M. Abstract One of the most important discussions in every school of thought is the subject of recognizing the enemies against the given school. Every being in the world should know their enemies in order to be able to secure their survival and provide the necessary means of defend against the enemies. Even the animals follow the same rule; no animal was trapped by the hunter except when it acted ignorantly. Concerning this subject, Imam (...) Khomeini Says no freeman officially recognizes Israel. The Quranic verse (82, surah: Ma`edeh) explains the subject of knowing the enemy and prioritizes it as, “Latajiddana Ashad Al-Nas” The first important enemy is the Jews and if one day the Quran would change the first important enemy changed. Any mention of the Jews in the Quran should be interpreted as the Zionism. The second important enemy is “Al-Ladina Ashraku” which means the polytheists. Another Quranic verse says that the Christians are also the Muslims` enemies, “Wa lan Tarza ankel Yahud Wa la Nasara Hatta Tattabe`a Mellatahom Qol Inna Hada Allah Wa laen Ittabaat Ahwa`ahom Bad Al-Ladi Jaaka Min Al- Elme Ma laka Men Allah-e Men Waliye Wala Nasir” meaning that the Jews and Christians will never be satisfied with you [so that you surrender to their wants] and follow their [distorted] religion. Say: Guidance is only the God`s guidance! And if you follow their desires, after becoming aware of it, there will be neither divine guardians nor any companions for you. (Surah: Baqareh, Verse 120). This article has mostly dealt with the basic formation of the Zionism. The subject has been divided and discussed in 4 categories, namely civil Zionism, Zionism in economy, policy, and religion. The article studies the importance of the Middle East in the viewpoint of “Lord Rochild” and the issue of laying the groundwork for controlling the Middle East as the best option for founding the Jew government. The Zionism`s four mentioned aspects were effective and aimed at creating a powerfull united Zionist government and later and as the result of these efforts the Israel promised state was founded. The author points to the serious problems of Zionism and indicates that the Post-Zionism, who had entered the scene to solve these problems, could not succeed in doing this mission. چگونگی شکل‌گیری و پیدایش صهیونیزم//Quality of Zionism`s formation//تأسیس الصهیونیة و ظهورها Keywords: Zionism, Economic, Political, Cultural and Religious Zionism, Israel, Rothschild, Instantly. (shrink)

A la question « quo vadis Israel ?», il est possible de répondre partiellement en juxtaposant l’été 2018, et notamment la loi fondamentale « Israël État-nation du Peuple Juif » votée le 19 juillet sous l’impulsion du gouvernement Netanyahu, et l’été 2011, où un mouvement de protestation commença le 14 juillet sur l’Avenue Rothschild à Tel Aviv, s’étendant ensuite à tout Israël et atteignant des proportions jamais connue dans le pays. Comment sommes-nous passés de l’espoir soulevé par le mouvement (...) social de 2011 qui faisait suite au Printemps arabe de Tunisie et d’Egypte, à la réaction politique implacable déployée par les différents gouvernements Netanyahu? Les quelques pages qui suivent tenteront de faire passer, ou plutôt de faire chuter le lecteur du soulèvement de l’été 2011 au changement néfaste de régime qui s’annonce avec le vote de la loi fondamentale « Israël État-nation du Peuple Juif. » L’auteur de ces lignes, témoin engagé, ne prétend pas à une étude historique de cette chute. Il a simplement voulu faire résonner sur le papier certaines des voix discordantes de ces sept dernières années. (shrink)